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| The Crystal Ball | ||
| by Jim Wrinn | ||
| Some 15 million Ford Model T cars were built between 1909 and 1927. Hundreds of thousands remain, many in operational condition. About 13,000 B-17 bombers were built during World War II. Today, 42 remain and of those, only 10 still fly. And out of the more than 150,000 steam locomotives built in the United States between the 1830s and 1950s, how many are still operating? The answer is that it all depends on who you ask. One web site says upwards of 400. A popular book on steam places the figure at about 300. A recent magazine article about a steam locomotive restoration placed the number in the 200s. Even folks who follow steam engines regularly have a tough time of it. "That's a tough figure to obtain," said Dan Ranger, executive director of the Tourist Railway Association Inc. "It's constantly changing. Your figures could be obsolete within days." True, but Crystal Ball wanted to know the real number of live steam engines out there, or at least get as close as possible. After all, this is America, where we count everything except the money at major corporations that affect the livelihood of thousands. It's the age of technology where everything can be known by everybody, everywhere in a manner of minutes. And besides, it helps to know where to know where to look for steam these days with some reliability. After all, isn't that tortured ex-FEC 4-6-2 up there in Michigan done yet? And isn't Cotton Belt 819 still under steam in Pine Bluff? And doesn't that PRR 0-6-0 still fire up at Williams Grove ever year? | ||
| So, you ask, why so many variations in the numbers that we see quoted so often? Is the truth, in fact, out there, lurking behind the tender of a PRR M1? Research is tough to do. A casual thumbing of pages of the pages of Kalmbach's 37th annual Guide to Tourist Railroads and Museums (aka, the Steam Passenger Director to us fossils), produces bountiful numbers of steam engines on the roster. They're supposedly sitting there with new Form 4s, tubes and fresh graphite on the smokebox, primed for the picking. But it ain't necessarily so. A lot of these beauties are laid up. They're in the shop for work, a 1,472-day inspection or both. Truth of the matter is that so many engines go in and out of service that the Guide can't keep up with them all, and doesn't profess to try. Remember that SP Mike in Austin that was there one day and gone the next? It was supposed to be repaired and back in service. Well, now it's in need of a band new cylinder saddle. All that's needed is big bucks and time. Another reason for the inflated figures is good old fashioned wishful thinking. Remember those surveys that show American men have sex 40 times a week? We love to inflate our opinion of ourselves, don't we? [Ed. Note: Speak for yourself, Jim. That's only 5-6 times per day . . . ] Many fans don't have the slightest clue what it takes to make old '97 steam again. In their minds, steam restorations begin and logically end in a few months or a year or two, with the resulting locomotive on the ready track, awaiting the first passenger special. So, a lot of engines that are "under restoration" get tossed into the pile of operable equipment. I know. It happened to me too. Five years back, I got real excited learning about work on ex-Maine Central 2-8-0 501 at Conway, N.H. The early reports I heard sounded so good and that things were going gangbusters with the engine out by fall. I got caught up in the moment, thinking about the serendipity of a MEC engine struggling through Crawford Notch on Mountain Subdivision track. I went, and I had a great trip-behind F9s. Last I heard, the MEC engine was still under restoration. I'll save the frequent flier points to New England for another day now-after I've seen somebody else's photos of it in steam. A third reason that the number tends to vacillate all over the place is that America is still a big place. Most of us can tell you with some certainty what's going on with the steam engines within a few hundred miles. But beyond that, it's kinda tough. It was hard for me to swallow, last fall, when I met an ex-Gold Coast alum who told me that neither ex-FEC Pacific in south Florida had run for several years. And when G. Wayne Laepple told me about some of the steam that was operating up in Maine in work train service, no less, I was pretty surprised. Bottom line is that the number of operating engines is always a moving target, so to speak. But, CB, in the interest of bringing some sort of truth squad to bear on this, enlisted a number of research associates nationwide to try and come up with a more reliable figure. The number we came up with is... 150-something. It's a number that confirms the Ball's worst fears-the amount of metal formed into the graven image of a steam locomotive has dwindled greatly in the last decade. The national economic recession, Part 230 work, insurance crisis and just old age have taken much of the toll in the last two. How'd we come up with this number? Well, first we took a survey of engines that had actually been seen, photographed, ridden, fired, smelled or fondled in operation during 2002. We noted engines that are often rumored to be within weeks of a return to service (Southern 722 at Dillsboro is often cited) but that are in pieces either in the midst of part 230 inspection or in the afterglow. We counted a few park engines, but only if they were, in the word of New England steam guru J. David Conrad "real," ie, they existed on a for-profit railroad and were built by a genuine locomotive manufacturer BEFORE Crown Metal Products trotted out its line of narrow gauge replica 4-4-0s in the 1960s. [Ed. Note: I removed the Disney and Cedar Point engines - all of which have "real" histories - account the rather garish paint and sheet metal modifications.] And lastly, we added this nifty list here for you, gentle reader, to ponder, explore, question and confirm as to the truthfulness of what is and what isn't out there. Surely, some of you can offer some new data here, to make the list more complete. | ||
| Finally, The Ball’s prediction for Fair of Iron Horse in Baltimore this summer, with, I swear, no insider info: 12 engines in steam. Press conference is Thursday, Feb. 6 to announce the guest list. One other event worth noting: The Humboldt Logging Museum's first public steam up is Donkey Days, April 26-27; go see the Bear Harbor engine, built in 1892, if for no other reason than just to say you’ve seen an engine that’s run in three different centuries! | ||
| Jim Wrinn, an editor and writer for The Charlotte Observer, is a volunteer with the N.C. Transportation Museum in beautiful downtown Spencer, N.C., where engines GCRR 1925, BC&G 4, and hopefully, one day, SR 542, keep him out of trouble. The next Crystal Ball update is April 1. Comments, suggestions, corrections and additions can go to crystalball@steamcentral.com. | ||
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